China outbound travel is back and increasingly retail-ready, but CTD’s 2026 forecast shows the real prize lies in corridor strategy, not trip numbers. China Trading Desk (CTD) has released its latest China outbound travel outlook, built on newly released 2025 official travel spend data and CTD’s destination-level travel retail modeling. According to CTD, Chinese residents generated an estimated US$254 billion in outbound travel spend in 2025 across approximately 167.5 million

China Trading Desk (CTD) has projected a US$280 billion outbound travel market for 2026, including a US$23 billion opportunity for global travel retail (GTR), as shopping behaviour rebounds unevenly across key corridors.

China Trading Desk (CTD) has released its latest China outbound travel outlook, based on newly published 2025 official travel spend data and its own destination-level travel retail modelling. CTD estimates that Chinese residents generated US$254bn in outbound travel spend in 2025 across around 167.5 million trips, based on a National Infrastructure Assessment (NIA) crossings-to-trips framework.

The consultancy projects a US$280bn China outbound travel rebound in 2026, with retail-ready travellers and corridor concentration set to drive a US$23bn airport and duty free spend opportunity.

China’s travel industry is expecting a sharp increase in visitors to Australia during this month’s extended Lunar New Year holiday, as millions of tourists fan out across the world for a nine-day break. Industry insiders said the lure of wine, seafood, nature and flexible small-group itineraries was driving interest in the island country.

Brands can expect an influx of Chinese travellers to Bangkok, Seoul and Kuala Lumpur during the Spring Festival travel surge, as well as heavier traffic at gateway airports serving domestic holiday destinations in Hainan, Hebei and Shaanxi.

Since 18 December 2025, Hainan’s island-wide special customs operations have moved the Free Trade Port from a duty-free “shopping stop” to a system that shapes price expectations, brand shortlists and purchase intent far beyond the island. With travellers booking fast but researching hard—CTD data shows 77% book within a month, 79% research pre-trip and 98% price-check against online—Hainan is compressing the path from influence to checkout.

Shanghai is fast becoming the go-to China break for South Korean travellers, powered by visa-free access, a short flight time and a strong “value for money” reputation. Visitor volumes have jumped from about 570,000 in 2023 to 1.1 million in 2024, and continued rising in 2025, with bookings for early 2026 reported at more than triple last year’s pace.

Bookings and flight data suggest South Korea will overtake Japan as the top Lunar New Year destination for Chinese travellers. China Trading Desk estimates 230k–250k mainland visitors to Korea from 15 Feb (up to +52% YoY), while Japan arrivals may fall up to 60%. Drivers include a stronger value won, eased group visas, K-culture appeal, and China–Japan tensions; China–Korea flights are up ~25% YoY, while China–Japan flights are down 48%.